Election Year Blues
Let’s face it fellow realtors, U.S. presidential election years are not generally friendly to real estate markets anywhere, be it Costa Rica or worldwide!
And this is an “election year” like no other in history.
Now I’m not going to get political by disclosing who I’m pulling for. I believe many of my readers already have a good idea about that…
However, I will make a few predictions and if you read on you will see why I think they will have an affect on the Costa Rica real estate market in the near future…
So, here goes…
First, I believe Donald Trump will have the republican nomination wrapped up by mid-March…
Second, I believe the Supreme Court’s ruling on his immunity defense claim will likely mean that there will be “no criminal trial” prior to the 2024 election…
Third, I think the recent age-related remarks made in the Special Counsel’s report on Biden’s classified documents scandal probably means that Biden is finished as a potential winner in the 2024 election.
Put all those predictions together and you can easily see that there’s a growing probability that Donald Trump gets re-elected as president of the U.S. in 2024.
These days all the buyers we realtors are driving around (for free) to show all this stunning new product on the Costa Rica real estate market are hemming and hawing like Taylor Swift at a Monday night matchup between the Eagles and the Chiefs…
No one seems ready to make a damn choice!
However, here’s another prediction for ya – that’s all going to change very soon due to the – yep, you got it, growing probability that Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election.
Point of clarification: I’m not saying Trump will win the election. There are way too many variables between now and November to make that bold of a prediction. I’m just saying that as the probability that he might win grows, the climate for real estate in Costa Rica will correspondingly grow hotter!
Election years are always difficult ones for real estate because they create buyer indecision. Buyers just don’t know what’s going to happen and that uncertainty is reflected in their equivocal behavior towards making life-changing decisions, like buying a new home. And that’s even more understandable when the decision involves something as momentous as buying in and moving to a foreign country!
Back in late 2020, when Costa Rica reopened its borders in the midst of the Covid pandemic, we experienced a 3 year seller’s market like none other in the history of Costa Rica real estate. That lasted through about mid-2023, when high inflation and high interest rates began to take their toll.
Buyer demand waned as inventory surged. Prices have only now started to tumble from their 2023 heights. There is a plethora of new product on the market now just waiting for demand to surge again.
And I really believe we are poised to see that happen.
So, you might be asking yourself, should I stay, or should I go now?
If I go, there will be trouble…
And if I stay, it will be double…
So come on and let me know…
Should I stay, or should I go?
OK, lyrics by the Clash aside, what does all this mean for you, would-be Costa Rica real estate buyer?
There has been a surge in inventory lately and I am seeing much of what’s on the market now experiencing price reductions to help stimulate demand…
And all of us realtors are experiencing frustration with this current crop of indecisive buyers!
So, does that mean playing a waiting game could pay off?
Possibly, but waiting could backfire as well.
Just like trying to time the stock market, when a market takes off it all can happen very fast. If you’ve already been eyeing a particular opportunity that you think is a good fit, playing the waiting game could pay off, but it’s a risky move…
You might find that property under contract, or off-market, in the blink of an eye. I have some sellers who are beginning to express frustration to the point of just pulling their properties off the market entirely rather than deal with a constant stream of look-y-loo’s, who are very willing to waste everyone’s time and then never be heard from again.
Now I don’t want to brag, but if you look back on what I was writing in the midst of the Covid Pandemic (before the market took off) you’ll have to admit that I was pretty much “on the money.”
And I believe I’ll be proven correct again with the predictions I am making in this post.
When will it happen?
That’s a more difficult prediction, but I don’t think buyers will wait for the 2024 election to be electorally decided. Rather, I believe that as soon as they become convinced of the high likelihood of a Trump victory in 2024, offers on properties that they’ve been considering will be forthcoming.
We already have plenty of buyers down here looking – showing activity has surged since the turn of the year after being very slow in the last few months of 2023. It’s just that no one seems willing to actually make a decision right now.
I think that’s going to change very soon, perhaps by the end of March when the probable outcome of this election year becomes clearer.
And Costa Rica is definitely on the radar screens of scores of American citizens (as well as those of other countries) as the place to seek haven when the proverbial shit hits the fan. And for many people (millions even) another Donald Trump presidency will definitely be interpreted as la caca golpeando el ventilador!
I even recently saw a clip of comedian Bill Maher making fun of wannabe expats expressing their desires to leave the U.S. with a (stupid) joke about moving to Costa Rica!
I honestly believe that it might be a foregone conclusion that in the coming months and years Costa Rican could be one of the world’s strongest real estate markets…
The next question I guess I need to address is – can the country handle the surge?
