Continued Uncertainty Reigns
Last year the Costa Rica real estate market was hamstrung by uncertainty...
The uncertainty of the 2024 election.
So far, 2025 also seems hamstrung by uncertainty...
The uncertainty surrounding the now known result of the 2024 election.
However, why the continuing uncertainty? I mean the guy is just doing everything he told us he was going to do. Did people just not believe him?
Here we are near the end of the first quarter 2025...
Has the market taken off like a rocket as I boldly predicted last year? Has the overwhelming wave of newly minted expat arrivals, well, overwhelmed us?
In a word - NO.
The southern zone market is still suffering from leftover 2024 sluggishness. I believe other markets around the country are behaving similarly.
For one thing, there's just too damn much inventory. There's far too much supply and far too little demand to meet it.
So, the strong buyer's market continues.
I drew a neat little graphic on my trusty Remarkable 2 the other day. It appears in the image above.
The needle points to where we are right now - buyer’s market territory.
Every once in a while it bobs up above the midpoint, only to fall back below it again.
I label this "normal" (buyer’s) market territory. After all, buyer's markets are the norm in Costa Rica. Oh for sure, we've had blips of time where the needle has accelerated into the unusual region of a "hot" (seller's) market. The latest being the post Covid years of 2021 to 2023.
It always takes some major catalyst to move that needle substantially righward.
Will Trump's election be one of those?
Last year I predicted that it would. But so far, the jury is still out.
It seems that the uncertainty about whether or not he would be elected that weighed heavily on the market in 2024 has now been overtaken by a different, but related, uncertainty...
The uncertainty about what his actual election will mean for the world.
Right now there are signs of trouble ahead…
There's even talk of the dreaded "R" word, recession, being bandied about.
Here's my take on it...
Yes these are uncertain times. And of course markets loathe uncertainty.
However, I think there is a threshold of uncertainty that if reached and surpassed, could serve as more of a catalyst to action than as a brake against it.
We could be fast approaching that threshold.
The one where folks finally say, ok, I've had enough of this...
I'm outta here!
It doesn't have to be a vast swipe of society that comes to this conclusion to move the Costa Rica real estate market needle to the right...
Only a few (million)!
When will we actually reach that point you ask?
Only time will tell, but if I had to venture a guess, I'd surmise - soon enough.
